Decoupling revisited

One of the most frustrating aspects of emerging market investing over the last year is the gap between the outperformance of their economies and the underperformance of most stockmarkets. This article takes a look at two different angles on “decoupling” and asks an investment question that concerns me a great deal: Could emerging markets be the place to be economically over the next decade, yet still get outshone by US Treasuries in investment terms?

I mentioned in passing that the S&P500, while probably overvalued,may not be quite as overvalued as the cyclically adjusted price/earnings ratio and equity q suggest. To expand on that, here’s a lengthy blog post on potential problems with equity q and CAPE.

 

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